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David Wallace's avatar

Tedious and annoying pedant here.

Your random method overrepresents constituencies 600-650 by a factor of 2.

Think of constituency 150. 1 chance in 7 of a 1, 1 chance in 10 of a 5, 1 chance in 10 of a 0. Total, 1 in 7x10x10 = 1 in 700, not 1 in 650.

True for any constituency below 600.

The discrepancy arises because when you draw a 6 for the hundreds - 1 time in 7 - you then have to redraw 5 times out of 10 when the tens ball is above 5.

Even so, your correspondent remains a lunatic.

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Allie Barnicoat's avatar

Love Matt Chorley listen to him on 5Live when I can. Even better on Newsnight so look forward to next Friday. No spare change to subscribe but believe me you’re appreciated Matt. Allie

Urmston, Manchester

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